2010 NHL Playoff Predictions: Eastern Conference Quarter Finals
The race for the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference proved to be one of the most exciting and dramatic finishes I have experienced. To see the Flyers win the shoot out to eliminate the Rangers and lift their team into the final playoff spot was intense. But, now the race is over, and it is time for these teams to settle down and aim for the Stanley Cup.
When it comes to predicting the Eastern Conference series, it's safe to say upsets probably will not occur. The division leaders and the Penguins are just too strong against the other four teams. They've had consistency all year the top four teams are going into the playoffs with 5 or more wins in their final ten games. So, let me break down my predictions and my personal analysis of each series.
[1]Washington Capitals vs. [8]Montreal Canadiens
Washington finished the year on top of the NHL with the most goals for, points, and wins. The team also finished first on the power play with a stunning 25.2 per cent, almost 3.5 per cent better than second place, which happens to be the Canadiens. Many have criticized the Capitals goaltending as insufficient for a long playoff run, but both Theodore and Varlamov have comparable statistics to Marc-Andre Fleury (Pittsburgh). Experience is the only real difference between Fleury and the Caps goalies.
It's honestly tough to believe the Habs have a chance at taking down the NHL's President's Award winners, but if there's a will, there's a way. Although the regular season goals allowed by both teams is only a difference of 10, recent play by Halak has shown he is the new number one goaltender in Montreal, at least until he makes a mistake in the playoffs. The Habs will only win if they can outscore the Capitals on the special teams, and making sure they limit the power play chances they give to the Capitals.
With that said, the Capitals should easily take this series in 5. I'm giving Montreal credit they can win one game here. Washington's fire power, at least for the first round, will prove an asset and will overcome any goaltending issues. Goals will be scored in this series and I will be betting the over every time.
[2]New Jersey Devils vs. [7]Philadelphia Flyers
The Devils have the best goalie in NHL history. Enough said! Well, that would have been what most would have said about the Devils in previous years, but this year the team added some fire power in Kovalchuk, and Parise and Zajac continue to produce offensively on the Devils. Langenbrunner is a perennial point-producer in the playoffs as well, and could very well be among the points leaders at the end of the first round.
The only way the Flyers can win this series is if their goalie, Boucher, can out duel Brodeur. Good luck with that. The Flyers are capable of scoring, but seem to take a lot of penalties. They are fortunate that the Devils power play is ranked in the middle of the league, however, that doesn't mean the Flyers will get away with it. The team needs to stay out of the box to increase their offensive chances. Richards who leads the league in face-off percentage (according to TSN) will provide the team with ample offensive zone wins, but they must crash the net and do what the Americans did against Brodeur in the Olympics. One other positive note is that the Flyers won the season series 6-2, but I do not expect that to translate into playoff wins.
Sadly, as a Flyers fan, I expect a very low-scoring series with the Devils winning in 6.
[3]Buffalo Sabres vs. [6]Boston Bruins
Olympic team mates Thomas and Miller will face each other in the playoffs in the first round, that is, if Thomas gets to start. Rask has been playing well enough and the team may end up going with the youngen. Buffalo's offense is average, but goaltending is spectacular. Both teams boast great penalty killing, ranked second and third.
Boston on the other hand has very little to talk about. Lowest scoring team (second to Calgary HAHAHA!) going against one of the best goalies in the league and although Rask has the best save percentage in the league, can he sustain that in the playoffs? Their best player, Savard, will not be in the line up and that equates to a short playoff journey. At least the team can celebrate a second overall draft pick, including another first rounder.
Defense will be the theme of this series, or is it a lack of offense... either or, Buffalo takes this series in 6. No Savard, no win. Bet under for each game. I wouldn't be surprised if each game is less than 4 goals, and hitting 4 with empty netters.
[4]Pittsburgh Penguins vs. [5]Ottawa Senators
It's too early to tell, but this will be the best series in the East. Two great teams going into the playoffs with good records and tonnes of confidence.
The Penguins have a lot of talent, but goaltending has been inconsistent this year. Fleury's play at the start proved the playoff hangover was a myth, but as the season wore on, we saw Fleury become a little more human. The team has enough offense to win games, but Fleury needs to step up his game if the Pens want to repeat. The team has Crosby and Malkin, who seem to be playing inspired hockey. The Pens also have the best third line in the league and will be able to get secondary scoring.
The Senators will have to prove many that they deserve to be in the second round and must resolve their problems. First, the team has lost Kovalev, and a goalie who has very little NHL experience, let alone NHL playoff games. The team's lack of success on the road will also be an issue. If they continue to lose on the road, they can not expect to win in the playoffs, especially when they do not have home-ice advantage.
For the Senators skill and potential, this series will end in 6, with their away games being extremely embarrassing. Expect a lot of scoring as well, so betting over might be best.
Well, those are my final predictions for the Eastern Conference Quarter Finals. The playoffs start tomorrow, so let's hope they are great. Have any thoughts on my predictions? Post them up please.
2010 NHL Playoff Predictions: Western Conference Quarter Finals
Sonomax (SOMX) Trading Opportunity
Sonomax [SOMX:NSDQ] was a stock I had traded heavily a few weeks ago as it had a huge run. I made some mad cash, and wished I could have blogged about it, but the risk and volatility was something I did not want my readers and friends (who I've heard read it) to endure through. In fact, I bought it one more time for fun and it dropped hard on me. I still own it, but it looks like a buying opportunity has presented itself.
Now that the volatility on the company has settled, we are getting to see some more stable trading, albeit 4 per cent swings in a day isn't traditionally stable. The stock bounced off $8 support two days ago, and has steadily climbed, also breaking out of a triangle or wedge formation. The streaming 6-month chart of Sonomax courtesy of BigCharts below shows this technical break out.
Normally, a break upwards in a flag formation, like the one above, moves up equal to the length of the flagpole (or the initial spike). That is, the spike went from $4 to $10 in about a day. Now, normally this holds true and break outs will add another $6, but I think this is a different spike which won't gather as much momentum. It seems that $10 is heavy resistance, so I would consider to sell in the high $9 range.
Consider watching the stock if you do not want to own a biopharm company with no revenue. This is purely a speculative play so do not put a lot of money into it. The company has not yet released its FDA-approved sleep aid pill into the market, but plans on getting them on the shelves in the future.
The good thing about this stock is that it moves a lot in a day, so it is possible to buy it on a down day and immediately sell it the next day for a good profit.
Insurers
A few weeks ago, I expressed my delight at Google's decision to leave China in an article titled "Ideals of Humanity Should Over Rule." I didn't plan on making the title a recurring blog theme, but clearly, there are enough serious (and even irrational) issues that must be brought to the attention of my friends and anonymous readers. So today, I proclaim that the Ideals of Humanity Should Over Rule will be a recurring feature on my blog, which will continue to touch the more human side of life.
There is no doubt the U.S. Health Care Reform (and Student Loans) Bill has created controversy in America, but last night I was watching "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and found to my dismay American Health Insurance Companies trying to find loop holes that would allow them to deny coverage to sick children.
The original law states, "A health insurance issuer offering group individual health insurance coverage may not impose any preexisting condition exclusion with respect to such plan or coverage." Section 2704, Clause A. In other words, an Insurer can not use pre-existing conditions (maybe terminal cancer, etc.) to deny a child health care coverage. But guess what loophole they found? It doesn't say they can't deny coverage to the child.
The spirit of the law required insurance companies to provide health insurance to children, even if they already have diseases or conditions that might render them unprofitable to big firms, but because it does not state they must cover the child, they technically do not have to cover the entire child plus the illnesses. What a joke!
Now, as a proponent of capitalism, I can see where they are coming from, but as a proponent of human beings and life, I do not agree with what these Insurance Companies are trying to do. The burden that is faced in America when a family member is sick is enormous, something I can not empathize with since I am Canadian. But, as your friendly neighbour, I share the anger that most Americans feel regarding this loophole hunt.
It is not surprising to me to find companies trying to find loopholes. They want to preserve their profits, but individuals siding with Insurers ticks me off even more. I found this comment on a news article from the Huffington Post.
"But dems put in the loopholes not the insurance co... comedy for simpletons ... I guess" [Posted 02:18 PM on 4/06/2010]
Wow! Does this person get his rationale from O'Reilly or something? With that logic, if you asked me not to punch you in the face, and then I asked a friend to punch you, then it is really your fault. Clearly, the spirit of your request was to prevent injury to your visage, but of course, I found a loop hole. What a ridiculous sense of logic you carry. I agree that loopholes derive from poorly written rules or laws, especially if misinterpretation is prominent, but in a situation like this, how dare someone argue that a loophole exists.
Insurance was born under a common thread that participants all pool their money to assist their colleagues during times of disaster. Where are the "good hands" of the "good neighbour" that I see on television ads?
The enemy of your enemy is not always your friend. For anybody who supports what the Insurance Companies are doing, consider finding a family with a disabled child. See the uncertainty, the turmoil, the fear the family endures to keep their loved one alive and tell me that you still believe what the Insurers are doing is right.
To everyone including politicians, CEOs of Insurance Companies, Conservatives, Libearls, everyone: Do not be blinded by your political affiliations. Take a look at the situation and step back for a minute, realize that the debate you are about to raise includes the lives of thousands, maybe millions of individuals who need support more than you ever will.
There is no doubt the U.S. Health Care Reform (and Student Loans) Bill has created controversy in America, but last night I was watching "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and found to my dismay American Health Insurance Companies trying to find loop holes that would allow them to deny coverage to sick children.
The original law states, "A health insurance issuer offering group individual health insurance coverage may not impose any preexisting condition exclusion with respect to such plan or coverage." Section 2704, Clause A. In other words, an Insurer can not use pre-existing conditions (maybe terminal cancer, etc.) to deny a child health care coverage. But guess what loophole they found? It doesn't say they can't deny coverage to the child.
The spirit of the law required insurance companies to provide health insurance to children, even if they already have diseases or conditions that might render them unprofitable to big firms, but because it does not state they must cover the child, they technically do not have to cover the entire child plus the illnesses. What a joke!
Now, as a proponent of capitalism, I can see where they are coming from, but as a proponent of human beings and life, I do not agree with what these Insurance Companies are trying to do. The burden that is faced in America when a family member is sick is enormous, something I can not empathize with since I am Canadian. But, as your friendly neighbour, I share the anger that most Americans feel regarding this loophole hunt.
It is not surprising to me to find companies trying to find loopholes. They want to preserve their profits, but individuals siding with Insurers ticks me off even more. I found this comment on a news article from the Huffington Post.
"But dems put in the loopholes not the insurance co... comedy for simpletons ... I guess" [Posted 02:18 PM on 4/06/2010]
Wow! Does this person get his rationale from O'Reilly or something? With that logic, if you asked me not to punch you in the face, and then I asked a friend to punch you, then it is really your fault. Clearly, the spirit of your request was to prevent injury to your visage, but of course, I found a loop hole. What a ridiculous sense of logic you carry. I agree that loopholes derive from poorly written rules or laws, especially if misinterpretation is prominent, but in a situation like this, how dare someone argue that a loophole exists.
Insurance was born under a common thread that participants all pool their money to assist their colleagues during times of disaster. Where are the "good hands" of the "good neighbour" that I see on television ads?
The enemy of your enemy is not always your friend. For anybody who supports what the Insurance Companies are doing, consider finding a family with a disabled child. See the uncertainty, the turmoil, the fear the family endures to keep their loved one alive and tell me that you still believe what the Insurers are doing is right.
To everyone including politicians, CEOs of Insurance Companies, Conservatives, Libearls, everyone: Do not be blinded by your political affiliations. Take a look at the situation and step back for a minute, realize that the debate you are about to raise includes the lives of thousands, maybe millions of individuals who need support more than you ever will.
Primerica Shares Surge
It has been quite a while since an IPO garnered such attention, but Primerica [PRI:NYSE] shares lived up to its hype, at least for the first day. By mid-day trading, the stock was trading above $20, reaching as high as $20.20, more than $5 above its $15 initial offering price with 15 million shares trading hands.
The company is a spin-off from Citigroup [C:NYSE] who raised $320 million from the sale. Many believed that the IPO would sell well because the shares were undervalued at $12-14. According to Reuters, the company is trading at 0.7 times book value, when most insurers trade near 1.0 times. This would mean the company's shares fair value compared to its peers is $20.
Primerica has a unique marketing and employment strategy that has been controversial, which has prompted lawsuits against the company. Despite this, the company has over 100,000 employees across North America working as independent agents.
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Primerica [PRI],
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