The Boston Marathon: an athletic event that has lost all of its meaning because of terrible events that took place. And in the aftermath, the goons of America jumped online to Tweet and share how it was the "sand niggers" and "Gooks" fault. This is why nobody likes America. These people jumped to wild accusations backed by unsubstantiated evidence stemming from a culture of racism, intolerance, and ignorance. This is the only country that would tell you that one plus one equals two dead Arabs.
A viral tmblr post (click here) revealed a mass of Americans hiding, waiting to pounce on the enemy for whatever reason. Their knee-jerk reaction's re-iterate our views of America.
With every destructive event that takes place in America, the hordes of haters come out, but so do those that stand for civility and represent the good side of America. I hope we can all ignore the few Americans, the hypocritical, racist dogs that have destroyed the reputation of America and focus on what is good. Aside from minor differences, we are all brothers and sisters. And in a time of disaster, we must stand together as one to console our neighbours. We are after all, divided only by borders and oceans.
What if the culprit turns out to be a Caucasian male earning $55,000 a year working as a mechanic, driving his two children to school every morning in the suburbs, while his Christian wife prepares a home-cooked meal? What if? The public shaming should put these trolls on the map and hopefully get rid of them too.
The epitome of America is no longer defined so simply. I don't know what it is, but it was once a place where a man could dream and fulfill it. Where a man could try and save the lives of children without being accused of pedophilia. Where a mother showing strength on-camera all the while mourning quietly in the shadows off-camera is not called an actress. Where people had the strength and courage to stand for morality. Americans, you are letting a minority of hateful people re-define your country. America is still a proud nation, often too proud, fired by passion and a desire to succeed. But it is being ruined by the immoral, ill-valued citizens that call America home.
What I saw and focused on in the wake of the aftermath was a large majority of Americans clinging to the foundations of humanity. Strangers carrying strangers to the nearest ambulance. Restaurants opening their doors to the bewildered and exhausted offering comfort, coffee, and Wifi to contact family for free. Amputees from the west coast providing solace to the east. This is what I wish all of us non-Americans remember when we think of their nation. There is no need for us to vilify an entire nation in the same manner as the Tweeters calling for war.
Why am I standing up for America? Because I am Canadian and they are our biggest allies. Because an attack on its citizens by terrorist bombs or by slander is unfair to all that is good. They are like any other country with a diverse range of opinions, some moral and some hateful. 85 per cent of their firefighters are volunteers. There is still a lot of good that exists within America and if we want to stand tall as a global unit against anything, we can not knock anybody down, whether it be Arabs, Koreans, or Americans.
Groupon's Gaffe is Google's Gain
The history of Groupon [GRPN] is an interesting tale that involved dramatic finishes, betrayal, roller coaster rides, and valuable lessons. It is not a well known history because of its irrelevance in the world beyond its niche of "online coupon clippers." But I believe the history is still worth sharing.
Prior to Groupon’s IPO in November 2011, Google made an offer to buy them for up to $6 billion in the fall of 2010. It was almost a done deal, but Groupon made the ultimate decision to reject the bid last minute. It was quite shocking and Google management was disappointed at the time. To put the bid into perspective, the $6 billion bid was equal to about 75 per cent of Google’s net income for the year ending 2010. Google was confident that Groupon was worth a lot, but Groupon was more confident that they were worth much more. Groupon was a fast-growing business and there were very few competitors like it at the time, so they practically had a monopoly. But with such small barriers to entry, replica businesses starting popping up with better pricing for retail outlets. And the decision to reject the bid was a surprise to many.
The IPO was a success. Early investors got a huge pay day and all of the concerns about their business model took a back seat. The company offered about 5 per cent of its float to the public at $20 a share and raised $700 million to expand. This valued the business at roughly $13 billion, more than twice the final bid by Google. There was still huge demand post-IPO. The shares would debut on the NASDAQ and traded as high as $26 on the opening day, creating a market cap of $17 billion. It seemed that Google definitely missed the boat and should have bid much higher. But that is where Google’s regrets end and Groupon shareholder pain’s begin. Both companies have gone in opposite directions since that day.
Today, Groupon shares are valued at around $5.50 with an estimated market cap of $3.6 billion, just 60 per cent of the final Google bid, and a steep discount to its IPO valuation. That $26 price it reached on the opening day has never been touched again. Right after its earnings report in late 2012, the shares touched $2.60 making the company worth under $2 billion. The stock has recently traded up from its all-time low on rumours that Google will make another round of bids for the company, but trading on rumour is a gamble. Groupon has yet to earn an annual profit, losing $67 million in 2012 and $373 million in 2011. Turmoil and poor performance has led to the firing of their CEO. Even with double-digit revenue growth, its long-term growth prospects seem bleak and fewer and fewer customers are using their services. There are just too many similar online coupon brands out there now.
Meanwhile, Google reached an all-time high this month of $844. The company is now worth about $267 billion, an increase of 33 per cent since Groupon’s IPO debut. The company reported net income over $10 billion in 2012 and has seen extensive growth in its Android business. It has announced more revenue generating strategies, such as the termination of free apps and is sitting on over $8 billion in cash and equivalences. And investors believe that there is room to grow, with the shares expected to hit $1,000 by year-end. It seems lofty, but this blue chip market giant continues to grow at double-digit rates as well, justifying a 25 P/E.
After being denied, Google decided to make its own competing online business called "Daily Deals." The competition did not kill Groupon, but exposed that their business model was flawed. It also may have exposed that Google got extremely lucky that their poor decision to bid Groupon did not come to fruition, but I digress.
In hindsight, Groupon's decision to reject the bid was a poor one it appears. George Santayana said "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Groupon should have known it was an overvalued brand at $6 billion in 2010. Even if it made all the right steps to be worth $10 bilion today, they should have sold. The market was in the midst of a second technology bubble and the founders lived through 2001. They saw what happened to Yahoo! and Microsoft. Were they that arrogant to believe a company making $50 million in revenue at the time could create $6 billion in present day profits over its entire existence? They certainly thought so and now the CEO has been canned because of it.
Prior to Groupon’s IPO in November 2011, Google made an offer to buy them for up to $6 billion in the fall of 2010. It was almost a done deal, but Groupon made the ultimate decision to reject the bid last minute. It was quite shocking and Google management was disappointed at the time. To put the bid into perspective, the $6 billion bid was equal to about 75 per cent of Google’s net income for the year ending 2010. Google was confident that Groupon was worth a lot, but Groupon was more confident that they were worth much more. Groupon was a fast-growing business and there were very few competitors like it at the time, so they practically had a monopoly. But with such small barriers to entry, replica businesses starting popping up with better pricing for retail outlets. And the decision to reject the bid was a surprise to many.
The IPO was a success. Early investors got a huge pay day and all of the concerns about their business model took a back seat. The company offered about 5 per cent of its float to the public at $20 a share and raised $700 million to expand. This valued the business at roughly $13 billion, more than twice the final bid by Google. There was still huge demand post-IPO. The shares would debut on the NASDAQ and traded as high as $26 on the opening day, creating a market cap of $17 billion. It seemed that Google definitely missed the boat and should have bid much higher. But that is where Google’s regrets end and Groupon shareholder pain’s begin. Both companies have gone in opposite directions since that day.
Today, Groupon shares are valued at around $5.50 with an estimated market cap of $3.6 billion, just 60 per cent of the final Google bid, and a steep discount to its IPO valuation. That $26 price it reached on the opening day has never been touched again. Right after its earnings report in late 2012, the shares touched $2.60 making the company worth under $2 billion. The stock has recently traded up from its all-time low on rumours that Google will make another round of bids for the company, but trading on rumour is a gamble. Groupon has yet to earn an annual profit, losing $67 million in 2012 and $373 million in 2011. Turmoil and poor performance has led to the firing of their CEO. Even with double-digit revenue growth, its long-term growth prospects seem bleak and fewer and fewer customers are using their services. There are just too many similar online coupon brands out there now.
Meanwhile, Google reached an all-time high this month of $844. The company is now worth about $267 billion, an increase of 33 per cent since Groupon’s IPO debut. The company reported net income over $10 billion in 2012 and has seen extensive growth in its Android business. It has announced more revenue generating strategies, such as the termination of free apps and is sitting on over $8 billion in cash and equivalences. And investors believe that there is room to grow, with the shares expected to hit $1,000 by year-end. It seems lofty, but this blue chip market giant continues to grow at double-digit rates as well, justifying a 25 P/E.
After being denied, Google decided to make its own competing online business called "Daily Deals." The competition did not kill Groupon, but exposed that their business model was flawed. It also may have exposed that Google got extremely lucky that their poor decision to bid Groupon did not come to fruition, but I digress.
In hindsight, Groupon's decision to reject the bid was a poor one it appears. George Santayana said "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Groupon should have known it was an overvalued brand at $6 billion in 2010. Even if it made all the right steps to be worth $10 bilion today, they should have sold. The market was in the midst of a second technology bubble and the founders lived through 2001. They saw what happened to Yahoo! and Microsoft. Were they that arrogant to believe a company making $50 million in revenue at the time could create $6 billion in present day profits over its entire existence? They certainly thought so and now the CEO has been canned because of it.
Never Listen to an Analyst!
July 2012: Apple [AAPL:NSD] is still a well-run machine without Steve Jobs. Shares have recovered from a spring correction and momentum is building. Analysts make the claim that the drop was a buying opportunity. With the release of new products like the iPhone 5 and a new iPad, money flowing into the company from consumers and investors would be endless. It could be the first company worth a trillion dollars. Microsoft of the 1990's was the closest, but its shares collapsed at the turn of the century and never recovered. But Apple is different. It has wider margins, more growth potential, and the largest cash balance in history.
September 2012: Apple is just weeks away from the iPhone 5 release and shares have pushed into all-time high ranges. Every down day is followed by a larger up day. The stock has now doubled in less than two years. The company became the most valuable company ever in history and reaches $705 a share. Analysts predict that Apple will still rise, reach $1,000, and still believe it to be the first ever trillion dollar business in market capitalization. No company can compete with a large company like this. Nearly all analysts make the call to buy the shares and investors did.
February 2013: Apple has released two earnings reports and has shown slowing growth. The engine that could has run out of steam. The company's shares have fallen from $705 to a still respectable $460. Five months after the correction, analysts finally cut their price targets on Apple. The words "trillion dollar" are once again heard only in conversations about the US debt. Analysts admit they were wrong on $1,000 targets and lower it to $800.
The above was an example of why individuals should never listen to an analyst, no matter how good that one may be. It is not because they are liars or cheats or thieves. No, because analysts are human. Therefore, they make judgement calls as a human. Analysts should not be viewed as prophets with a crystal ball. Although their predictions may be well-educated in nature, these predictions are solely on fundamentals and are formed through the same schools of thought as counterparts anywhere.
They fall victim to public sentiment. In 2008, there was widespread belief that the American economy was headed for a double-dip recession, so analysts were pessimistic. They felt the sentiment of consumers and investors. Their targets were low, yet shares outperformed and had one of the strongest showings in years. Today, we see analysts with big buy ratings on every company even though earnings are showing lackluster growth.
Some believe analyst ratings are a trailing indicator. They react too late, as seen in the Apple example above. By providing a sell rating nearly six months after shares fell almost 40 per cent is redundant. Historically, analysts over estimate earnings during times of good and under estimate earnings during times of recovery. Below, we see a chart of EPS estimates by analysts and the real EPS.
Analysts projected big earnings for the market during stable economic times. The chart shows lofty predictions during the 1990's but companies disappointed. Then, the recession hit in 2001 and analysts gave pessimistic views only to be proven wrong year after year. It took 6 years for estimates to be overly optimistic and then the financial crisis hit.
Where are we now? 5 years after the financial crisis hit and approximately 90 to 95 per cent of stocks have a buy rating on them. Have we reached another cycle of extreme optimism? If so, it may be a signal to sell. After all, to say at random your stock will earn you money 9 times out of ten seems a little too easy. And when global markets are trading at or near all-time highs again, it may be time to finally ignore the analysts and figure it out on your own. I certainly have.
September 2012: Apple is just weeks away from the iPhone 5 release and shares have pushed into all-time high ranges. Every down day is followed by a larger up day. The stock has now doubled in less than two years. The company became the most valuable company ever in history and reaches $705 a share. Analysts predict that Apple will still rise, reach $1,000, and still believe it to be the first ever trillion dollar business in market capitalization. No company can compete with a large company like this. Nearly all analysts make the call to buy the shares and investors did.
February 2013: Apple has released two earnings reports and has shown slowing growth. The engine that could has run out of steam. The company's shares have fallen from $705 to a still respectable $460. Five months after the correction, analysts finally cut their price targets on Apple. The words "trillion dollar" are once again heard only in conversations about the US debt. Analysts admit they were wrong on $1,000 targets and lower it to $800.
The above was an example of why individuals should never listen to an analyst, no matter how good that one may be. It is not because they are liars or cheats or thieves. No, because analysts are human. Therefore, they make judgement calls as a human. Analysts should not be viewed as prophets with a crystal ball. Although their predictions may be well-educated in nature, these predictions are solely on fundamentals and are formed through the same schools of thought as counterparts anywhere.
They fall victim to public sentiment. In 2008, there was widespread belief that the American economy was headed for a double-dip recession, so analysts were pessimistic. They felt the sentiment of consumers and investors. Their targets were low, yet shares outperformed and had one of the strongest showings in years. Today, we see analysts with big buy ratings on every company even though earnings are showing lackluster growth.
Some believe analyst ratings are a trailing indicator. They react too late, as seen in the Apple example above. By providing a sell rating nearly six months after shares fell almost 40 per cent is redundant. Historically, analysts over estimate earnings during times of good and under estimate earnings during times of recovery. Below, we see a chart of EPS estimates by analysts and the real EPS.
Analysts projected big earnings for the market during stable economic times. The chart shows lofty predictions during the 1990's but companies disappointed. Then, the recession hit in 2001 and analysts gave pessimistic views only to be proven wrong year after year. It took 6 years for estimates to be overly optimistic and then the financial crisis hit.
Where are we now? 5 years after the financial crisis hit and approximately 90 to 95 per cent of stocks have a buy rating on them. Have we reached another cycle of extreme optimism? If so, it may be a signal to sell. After all, to say at random your stock will earn you money 9 times out of ten seems a little too easy. And when global markets are trading at or near all-time highs again, it may be time to finally ignore the analysts and figure it out on your own. I certainly have.
A Case for the Oilers
However, it will be an uphill battle. To become a better team is one thing, but to be better than 7 other teams is a considerably tougher task to follow. This team has many glaring weaknesses and any fan can list them: Poor defense from the forwards, an inability to get shots on net, terrible face offs, poor discipline, and a lack of grit. These are small parts of the game that help build a championship team. However, having visible weaknesses allows management to identify players that can be obtained through acquisitions.
Major deals prior to the trade deadline should put them into the playoffs. The Oilers have received plenty of support from the goaltending position. Facing more than 30 shots a night, Dubnyk has been stellar and it appears that Khabibulin has accepted his back-up role with professionalism and confidence. He is healthy, and although he has had just one appearance because of injuries, he has proven he is back and ready to help the Oilers make the playoffs.
The Oilers possess gifted forwards such as Eberle and Gagner, the latter on a contract year. Their top six forwards may be small, but their speed will allow them to overcome big, strong defensemen on the rush. By sticking to their game, they can control the pace with their youth. A high-tempo game suits the youthful Oilers just fine. And as they continue to develop and focus on their strengths, I believe that their transition game and fore-checking will improve.
Another reason the Oilers have a good shot is the continued weakness of their division. Minnesota made a big splash with huge signings, but it has not been the “It” factor that the Wild thought they needed. Calgary and Colorado are still not contenders. That leaves the perennial Canucks as heavy division leader favourites. However, many analysts predict that the time for the Canucks is passing, which leaves the door wide open for the Edmonton Oilers. Divisional placement is huge in the NHL. Many times we have seen division leaders claim third in the conference simply because their division was weak, and although that is not the best way to make the playoffs, any missteps by the Canucks is an opportunity for the Oilers.
Don't agree? Want a different perspective. Check out Nico's blog at EDMFlavor and see who you agree with!
Yakupov Nailed the Celebration
Passion, enthusiasm, excitement, pride. That is what I see when I re-watch Nail Yakupov's game-tying goal celebration over and over again. But there are people out there criticizing him for his over zealous reaction, for disrespecting the game and making a mockery of hockey. He cheered like a soccer player, so what? They have passion for their careers and teams too. Let's give the kid a break here. If the Kings did not have a problem with it, neither should anyone else.
He is 19 years old and just scored the most exciting Oilers goal since Hemsky against Dallas. Puck mid-air, rebounding off of Quick's blocker with just 4.7 seconds remaining. The drama that was built exploded in passion from a kid. He skated and slid across the ice leaving his fellow team mates behind and collapsed in joy. He looked to the crowd and cheered with them. It is the epitome of hockey. It is what I, along with millions, missed three months for. This is what I live for.
Had this been a game-tying goal at the ten minute mark, then absolutely it was too much but it wasn't. It was at 4.7 seconds against the Stanley Cup champs when the odds were so stacked against the them, when the team just had a disallowed goal a minute prior, when Quick was sensational all game, it was right. It was perfect!
Nothing astounds me more than the fact that all of Canada hated him exactly one month ago for his remarks against team Canada's Junior team. Today, he is a hero, at least in Edmonton, and those remarks? History.
Yakupov is a sensational player who clearly wants to win and has a passion and drive that many of us lack. I for one am glad that he has brought his personality to the league. Hockey is not confined to gentlemen with cuts, scrapes, missing teeth, and bruised fists. It is also for the energetic, immature, naive boys who grew up wanting to be in the NHL and will make every moment of it memorable.
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