Economic Recovery Imminent

March 9,2009: The world's financial barometer, known as the stock market, would reach multi-year lows and all signs pointed to the Apocalypse. Major financial companies, such as Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, and Merril Lynch were all wiped off the face of the earth, and many other firms were close to bankruptcy as well. It took a huge bailout to save the rest back in the fall of 2008. Signs of a second Depression were here. Fast forward to March 9, 2010; there is emerging hope that an economic recovery is on the horizon, with many indicators already showing improved figures, such as retail sales and GDP growth. The markets in Asia, Europe, and Americas are now up at least 60 per cent since the fallout and investors who sold a year ago are grieving at the missed opportunities everyone knew existed. It is hard for the average person, especially in America, to see that a recovery has been in the works for nearly three quarters, with jobs still unattainable, income being slashed, and so much negativity all around, but the signs are here. When Obama took the reigns as President, he inherited a mess of an economy, and give him credit, he has made many controversial decisions which seem to be helping. Many people denied the economy would ever recover and that it would take years. However, those people discounted one major difference today compared to the Great Depression: The world is much more global and China and India are now major players in the world. I've written a few times since I started my blog that things are looking good. Rising commodities alongside a rising US dollar is a very strong indicator. GDP is up, manufacturing data positive, retail sales up, job cuts down, and just about anything else looking a little better. Although jobs have not yet been created to substantially reduce the unemployment rate, we have seen signs that employers are ready to invest in human and technological resources. To my readers who are in a bit of a rut, be patient. I may not have been alive for the Great Depression nor old enough to remember the Asian crisis, but I know that humanity never changes and history always repeats. Keep a positive outlook and have confidence in who you are. Retail sales will jump start hiring and I predict this will happen in the summer. Yes, it is a while away, but this is a slow recovery that requires human endurance. The strong will stick through it and have something proud to talk about. Monitor major leading indicators to stay informed. Pay attention to the stock market trends, consumer expectation reports, and housing permits. Remind yourself that employment is a lagging indicator and generally lags the economy's state about two or three quarters. The recession was considered over, by definition, at the end of 2009, so hopefully we are halfway through the lag.