Are the Canucks For Real?

Imagine this - a Vancouver Canucks team that did not finish with 54 wins and 117 points this year. Instead, they finished the season having to fight to the bitter end to get that Presidents' Trophy, but lost out to the Sharks by a single point. Despite having the most goals scored and fewest allowed, despite having a top ranked power play and third ranked penalty kill, the team only finished second. In that situation, I ask you this, "Would Vancouver still be favoured to win the Stanley Cup?" Imagine that.

It's a hypothetical situation that isn't so far-fetched. Consider the idea that if the Northwest Division was more competitve, Vancouver may have had fewer wins within the division. The Canucks won 18 out of 24 games against their divisional foes, an impressive feat on its own under normal circumstances, but not as impressive when 12 of those games happens to be against the rebuilding Avalanche and Oilers and the remaining 12 were against the Flames and Wild, who also did not make the playoffs.

Had the division been a little better, Vancouver probably would have only finished with 12 or 13 wins against the Northwest, the amount of wins against the other two Western Conference divisions. In that sense, the team would have earned about 10-12 points fewer, putting them on par with the Sharks or Red Wings.

Last season, the Washington Capitals won the Presidents' Trophy but were ousted in the first round by the Montreal Canadiens. Questions about the team's inflated place in the standings has been raised for many seasons now. The Southwest Division has never had more than two representatives make the playoffs since Ovechkin was drafted. And last year, no other team made the playoffs. The Capitals have had a dominant record against their division rivals, reaching the same win levels as the Canucks did this season against their own respected division. However, the Capitals record outside the Southwest was mediocre at best, barely posting above .500.

So are the Canucks built for the playoffs? Based on their elite statistics, you could easily argue they are, but seeing them almost lose to an eighth place team that's a shadow of their former glory should have fans concerned.

Ryan Kesler, who is having a break out season, managed to score an impressive 41 goals, tying him with team mate Daniel Sedin, and tied for fourth overall in the league. However, Kesler managed to pocket just 11 goals against playoff teams, and it's not like he only played 25 games against playoff teams. The amount of games versus playoff and non-playoff teams is almost exactly even at 41. This lack of productivity has continued into the first eight games of the playoffs, with zero goals.

Even Don Cherry says you need your best players to score in the playoffs. After all, you can only lean on your third and forth line for so long; their roles are not to score. The Sedin brothers just haven't really showed up statistically. TSN pointed out some poor defensive play by Henrik which ultimately lead to at least two goals against Chicago. Maybe it was a weakness that nobody was aware of because it was not exposed during the regular season. I don't really know.

To say that Vancouver does not deserve the Presidents' Trophy would be the voice of a bitter Oilers fan. Vancouver and Calgary success just isn't allowed in Oil Country, but as a realist, I know that Vancouver is a good team, arguably the best Vancouver team since 1996. They do deserve the Trophy, no doubt about it. However, with that said, I truly believe this team is a 48-win team. So to answer my own question above, no, the Vancouver Canucks real odds of winning the holy grail is about as good as the Sharks or the Wings. That's going to set up a very good third round.